Semantic systems / AI research
SemTrace
A leakage-aware test of whether graph-derived protocol context adds signal to DeFi incident severity classification.
Corrected dataset
1,608
normalized incidents from 2011–2025
Chronological holdout AUC
0.823 / 0.817
baseline / graph-enriched
Temporal CV AUC
0.775 / 0.787
baseline / graph-enriched mean; uncertainty remains material
System view
Semantic relationship schemaProblem
The research asks whether protocol context known before an incident improves the ranking of severe financial-loss events. The central constraint is temporal validity: graph facts cannot be used unless their availability before the incident can be demonstrated.
Engineering approach
- Use the same deterministic LightGBM configuration and baseline inputs for both models.
- Admit a graph feature only when its availability timestamp is no later than the incident.
- Evaluate on a chronological holdout and five expanding-window validation folds.
- Keep conference reproduction and corrected portfolio evaluation as separate profiles.
What the evidence supports
Graph enrichment did not improve the corrected chronological holdout. Temporal cross-validation was slightly higher on average, but the result was not consistent enough to support a strong predictive claim.